A blog relating to groups of people organising realistic options for a future dominated by declining of energy supply
Or maybe no need?
Meanwhile, perhaps in view of this exceptional post about kitegen (with EROEI of 300+), we won't need to "run for the hills" after all? (I'll be studying it further over the next day or so [--see comments for my later thoughts].)
Even if it works, there will still be a collapse. You can't shift the entirety of civilization onto kitegen quickly enough to stave it off when there isn't even a single working model yet.
Personally, I wouldn't bank on this idea working in the first place -- but what have you discovered?
I'm inclined to agree with you. As I said, that was my provisional guess before I had chance to continue studying it. If it was rolled out with sufficient urgency then it might be able to reduce the probability of a general energy crunch. And my bet is that such a system could indeed be made to work, as it doesn't look particularly adventurous technology, and no decisive objections were raised by the notoriously harsh audience at TOD. But firstly it would not provide the liquid fuel that is the only thing that can power the millions of internal combustion engines. And however brilliant an idea it may be, it is very unlikely to obtain the political/social backing required for rapid-enough roll-out. Grand organisations are notorious for their blindness towards key innovations. Consider for instance that Dyson was consistently rejected by all the manufacturers and had to do it himself; and now all vacuum cleaners use his principle.
There's still nothing to prevent people beavering away on a prototype and obtaining finance for a slower rollout of course. It's just, let's prepare for transition simultaneously; it can't be avoided and most of the changes will be needed in any case.
Maybe want to put your 'energy arks' at a little altitude, just in case? :)
A limitation of the kitegen is it is either a big expensive thing or it fails to reach the high altitude that pays for it. An interesting line of much lower-tech option is the windbelt or fluttermill (as per websearch). These are lowpower at the moment but that could change. I hope to find time to research these more myself (one wishes!).
Yeah, appropriate tech is coming up with some good things. The good thing about those two ideas is you could build them from salvage indefinitely. That means even if no investment were ever put in, there's opportunity to power up a locale a little bit with some initiative.
There will be investment anyhow I expect. The problem is you are not looking at anything like soon enough to prevent at least an oil and therefore a food crisis, which is really still the first concern.
Even if it works, there will still be a collapse. You can't shift the entirety of civilization onto kitegen quickly enough to stave it off when there isn't even a single working model yet.
ReplyDeletePersonally, I wouldn't bank on this idea working in the first place -- but what have you discovered?
I'm inclined to agree with you. As I said, that was my provisional guess before I had chance to continue studying it. If it was rolled out with sufficient urgency then it might be able to reduce the probability of a general energy crunch. And my bet is that such a system could indeed be made to work, as it doesn't look particularly adventurous technology, and no decisive objections were raised by the notoriously harsh audience at TOD.
ReplyDeleteBut firstly it would not provide the liquid fuel that is the only thing that can power the millions of internal combustion engines. And however brilliant an idea it may be, it is very unlikely to obtain the political/social backing required for rapid-enough roll-out. Grand organisations are notorious for their blindness towards key innovations. Consider for instance that Dyson was consistently rejected by all the manufacturers and had to do it himself; and now all vacuum cleaners use his principle.
There's still nothing to prevent people beavering away on a prototype and obtaining finance for a slower rollout of course. It's just, let's prepare for transition simultaneously; it can't be avoided and most of the changes will be needed in any case.
ReplyDeleteMaybe want to put your 'energy arks' at a little altitude, just in case? :)
A limitation of the kitegen is it is either a big expensive thing or it fails to reach the high altitude that pays for it. An interesting line of much lower-tech option is the windbelt or fluttermill (as per websearch). These are lowpower at the moment but that could change. I hope to find time to research these more myself (one wishes!).
ReplyDeleteYeah, appropriate tech is coming up with some good things. The good thing about those two ideas is you could build them from salvage indefinitely. That means even if no investment were ever put in, there's opportunity to power up a locale a little bit with some initiative.
ReplyDeleteThere will be investment anyhow I expect. The problem is you are not looking at anything like soon enough to prevent at least an oil and therefore a food crisis, which is really still the first concern.